By Stephen F. Holder, Times Staff Writer
Friday, April 22, 2011
BY STEPHEN F. HOLDER
TAMPA — In the cottage industry of NFL draft analysis, predictions can vary wildly. And when it comes to mock drafts, the only consensus is that there isn't one.
Which makes it all the more interesting that an overwhelming majority of prognostications are consistent on one point: Running backs will largely be sitting on the sidelines in the early portions of this draft.
Alabama's Mark Ingram is the only back projected to be chosen in the first round in most predictions, bucking an annual trend of several running backs coming off the board in the first 32 picks.
All of which might suggest the Bucs — who are looking for help in the backfield — are in an unfortunate predicament. But Tampa Bay need not worry about finding quality running back help in the later rounds.
In fact, that's often precisely the place to find it. More than any position, running backs picked in the middle and later rounds can emerge as surprising talents. Even undrafted prospects regularly develop into impressive players.
"Happens all the time," ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said.
Look no further than the Bucs' own LeGarrette Blount, the undrafted former Oregon Duck who took the NFL by storm last season with a 1,000-yard rookie season. The 2010 rushing leader, Arian Foster, went undrafted, too, as did the Saints leading rusher, Chris Ivory, and Patriots 1,000-yard rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
Those kinds of finds are no longer rare exceptions.
In fact, a running back's status as a first-round pick guarantees nothing. Of the NFL's top 10 rushers in 2010, just three — Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson — were first-round selections. The list is dotted by players like Michael Turner (fifth-round pick), Jamaal Charles (third) and Ahmad Bradshaw (seventh).
With the Bucs taking a long look at their own backfield, it's obvious addressing the running back corps won't require them to part with a precious early-round choice — though the team did host Ingram for a pre-draft visit.
Furthermore, what the Bucs are searching for hardly calls for a huge investment. Blount has shown he can be a primary ballcarrier, but the Bucs could be in the market for a third-down back and backfield depth in general.
Veteran Cadillac Williams had a strong finish last season when cast as a complementary and third-down back, but he will be a free agent when the NFL's work stoppage ends. Also, his injury history and age (29) could justifiably cause some trepidation.
But the Bucs have other pressing needs, too, which is why the availability of quality running backs late in the draft bodes well for Tampa Bay.
So, what's behind this phenomenon? Primarily, it's a numbers game. There is simply greater depth of available talent at running back than, say, linemen.
Gil Brandt, a longtime Cowboys executive and current Sirius NFL radio host, has been scouting drafts since 1960 and has seen the use of running backs change while the sizable talent pool has not. In his early days in Dallas, he said, the Cowboys carried five tailbacks and two fullbacks. Those days are long gone.
"If you have a tryout camp ... if you have 100 people there, 50 will be wide receivers, 25 will be running backs, and when you get to offensive and defensive linemen, it's probably 2 percent," Brandt said. "People look at the draft this way: the value that you can get in the draft later on is significantly better at running back than at offensive or defensive lineman. There's a huge dropoff in linemen."
That's more true today because teams are using multiple running backs — unlike other skill positions, where players play every down — making them less desirable as early picks.
"There's got to be a premium," Bucs general manager Mark Dominik said. When that's lacking at a certain position, he added, "that's what makes them start to fall."
And that's how things are shaping up in this draft, a fact that can only help the Bucs.
"I only counted three or four teams that are even going to think about a running back in the first couple of rounds," Kiper said. "So, these running backs that everybody thinks are going to be second- and third-round picks — I hear all these names — they're not."
That means a running back or two could again fall between the cracks and become the latest in the long line of late-round picks to pile up eye-popping numbers.
"I think this year's running back class is a talented class," Dominik said. "I think there's value to be had from the first round all the way to the seventh round."
Stephen F. Holder can be reached at sholder@sptimes.com.